How to Understand Whether a Market Is Big Enough
For a startup, it’s important not only to have an idea but also to choose a market that can sustain growth. If the market is too small, the business will quickly hit a ceiling and won’t be able to scale. Fortunately, you can estimate market size even without analysts - using simple tools.

The first step is to understand how many people experience the problem you want to solve. This is your potential market. If the problem is narrow and affects only a small group, the market is likely small. If it’s widespread - there’s potential for scalability.

The second step is to calculate the market using the TAM-SAM-SOM model:
TAM - total available market: everyone who could potentially use the product.
SAM - the segment you can serve considering country, language, and sales channels.
SOM - the part of the market you can realistically capture in the first 1–2 years.

The third step is to find real numbers. Simple sources include national statistics offices, Google reports, DataReportal research, and payment system analytics. Even basic indicators - the number of internet users, online payment volume, or category popularity - help you understand the market’s scale.

The fourth indicator is market growth speed. Even if the market isn’t huge but grows 20-40% per year, it’s a good sign. Fast-growing markets allow startups to grow with them.

Finally, look at competitors. Having no competitors isn’t always good - it may mean the market doesn’t exist. If competitors exist, grow, and attract users, it means the market is alive and large enough.

A proper market assessment is a mix of logic, simple calculations, and common sense. If you can prove that thousands or millions of people face the problem and are willing to pay for the solution, the market exists - and it’s big enough for a startup.
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